It’s 11:59 on December 31. The clock strikes 12, the party erupts, you reach for the phone to call your beloved and, boom, just like that, no dial tone.

It’s 11:59 on December 31. The clock strikes 12, the party erupts, and the lights go out … everywhere.

End of the world? Chances are, probably not. Sure, Armageddon could be rearing its ugly head at the stroke of midnight during the first minute of the year 2000, but it’s highly unlikely. Instead, the absence of a dial tone and the failure of the electricity, if it were to happen, will more than likely be the cause of something completely unrelated to the date rollover and not a potential cause of panic.

To ease such fears, the White House recently released a report that shows how realistic it is for such systems to fail, and how seemingly unrealistic it is to place the blame solely on the clock reaching midnight.

"Everyday things go wrong, and nobody pays much attention to them, nobody thinks twice about it," John Koskinen, President Clinton’s top Y2K adviser told the Associated Press. "But any of those things that happen on January 1st will immediately be presumed to be the indication of a Y2K problem."

In fact, in recent years, and especially in the months leading to January 1, much has been done to secure the fact that all necessary technology is Y2K compliant — meaning that the products and services have been tested against or revised to ensure their working ability in the year 2000.

The Y2K Phenomenon resulted from the computer programming practice of eliminating the first two digits of a year, a practice which caused fear over the possible misinterpretation on the computer’s part in reading the "00" of 2000 as 1900 and, therefore, causing widespread disruption. And while there was some reason for fear when the problem was first discovered, industry experts across the board insist that the likelihood of a widespread Y2K-related failure is slim to none.

So, what is guaranteed to work come January 1? According to the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), nearly every product in an individual’s household should be in proper working order in the year 2000. While the average home is listed as having up to "20-25 computer chips incorporated into various electrical appliances and equipment" a very small number of those depend upon a date and are therefore not affected by the "99" vs. "00" confusion. In fact, the only household item that is not guaranteed exemption from the calendar rollover are some VCRs and camcorders, and even they are considered Y2K compliant if purchased after 1987. If purchased before 1987, the CPSC recommends that you merely attempt to reprogram the machine.

Before one can reprogram a VCR, however, it is necessary to have electricity and, by all accounts, there should be electricity on January 1, as well.

Recently, Energy Secretary Bill Richardson affirmed that the nation’s electrical utility systems were 100 percent ready for the calendar rollover and insisted that all customers across the country would be using services provided by Y2K compliant power companies, including Central PA’s local provider, PP&L. PP&L has been Y2K ready since July 1 and has successfully completed testing on "electricity generation and delivery systems."

And while the success of the Y2K testing does indicate that the systems will work without a hitch at midnight, both PP&L and Secretary Richardson warn that something else could be the cause of brief outages, those unpredictable winter storms.

In fact, a winter storm is exactly how disaster programs such as FEMA and the American Red Cross would prefer the public think of the Y2K crisis. For some time, FEMA and the President’s Council on Y2K Conversion have been advising the public to prepare for January 1 as if they were preparing for a flood or a blizzard — with caution, but with a clear head. Y2K experts do not advise buying mass quantities of foods and other items, being ever mindful of the fact that over-buying could result in shortages completely unrelated to any millennium-related problem.

Instead of stockpiling freeze-dried food or heading for the hills, those familiar with disaster programs recommend that one have on hand the basic supplies they’d need in any storm — non-perishable food, bottled water, flashlights, batteries, a radio, and a first-aid kit —and have taken the opportunity to remind those stricken with the Y2K panic that those items are those that should always, in the event of any disaster, be readily on hand.

So, if there’s food and water and electricity and heat, what is left to worry about? The telephone, of course.

Bell Atlantic began working on their Y2K Compliance efforts more than four years ago and have made every effort to ensure the quality of their product. While they have successfully passed programming tests and can safely promise communication quality, the one glitch that may affect the telephone industry at large is one that the companies, like Bell Atlantic, have no control over — the public themselves.

One major concern of Bell Atlantic is that, at midnight, users will pick up their phone — be it to check for a dial tone or to call a loved one — find no tone, and panic. According to Bell Atlantic, callers are asked to refrain from using the phone in the early minutes of 2000: "While we do not expect network congestion, if everyone picks up the phone around midnight of December 31, whether to test dial tone or to send good wishes, there is an increased potential for delayed dial tone — which has nothing to do with Year 2000 failures."

As an added reminder, Bell Atlantic also advises users to abstain from making test calls to emergency systems, such as 911, as an effort to ensure the availability of lines for use in true emergencies.

More than likely, January 1, 2000 will come and go like the 1999 before it. With little or no problems. There may be a power failure here or there — chances are pretty good that something totally un-Y2K related will be of cause in one of the 50 states — but there is no indication that the world will come crashing down at the stroke of midnight on December 31.

Think on the bright side. Your computer may not work, but your bills will still be due.